Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?
Event Resolved
The market on whether both teams would slay Baron Nashor in Game 3 ended with an unclear resolution, leaving the outcome undetermined. Traders were evenly split throughout, with odds holding steady at 50-50 from start to finish, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the matchup. Because the result was marked unclear, it is difficult to say whether the crowd got it right or wrong - the market essentially called it a coin flip and never budged from that position.
Baron Nashor's Coin Flip: HLE vs. BRION Game 3 Objective Market
League of Legends fans know that Baron Nashor is the big purple worm sitting in the river that separates winners from losers - or at least, teams that win team fights from teams that lose them. Spawning at the 20-minute mark and respawning every six minutes after death, Baron is the single most contested objective in professional LoL. The question on Polymarket right now is whether both Hanwha Life Esports and HANJIN BRION will each get their hands on Baron at least once during Game 3 of their series. It sounds simple, but in competitive play, one team can absolutely snowball a game so fast that the losing side never even gets close to the pit.
The stakes here are purely about game flow. A "Yes" resolution means the game went back and forth enough that both squads had a window to secure Baron - suggesting a longer, more contested match. A "No" means one team dominated the objective game entirely, or the match ended before either team (or at least one of them) could get there. Given HLE's reputation as one of the stronger LCK organizations and BRION's role as relative underdogs, a clean HLE stomp could easily produce a "No" without Baron ever changing hands twice.
At the moment, the market is sitting at almost exactly 50-50, with "Yes" at 50.5% and "No" at 49.5%. That is about as uncertain as a market gets - participants seem to believe this is genuinely a coin flip, which honestly makes sense. Game 3s in best-of-three series tend to be the most volatile, and Baron control in a close game almost always ends up split between teams at some point. The volume is light at just $23.52 in 24 hours, so this is not exactly the most liquid market on the platform - a single well-timed trade could nudge those numbers meaningfully.
The key scenarios are fairly clean. If the game is long and scrappy - the kind where both teams trade leads and neither side fully collapses - "Yes" becomes the natural outcome. If HLE (or BRION, in an upset) runs the table from the mid-game onward without giving the opponent a foothold, "No" wins. One fun wrinkle: if Game 3 never happens because the series was already decided, the market resolves 50-50, which is basically the market's current price anyway. At least the math would be tidy.
For anyone watching this market, the takeaway is that the pricing reflects genuine uncertainty rather than any strong directional signal. The low volume means this is a niche corner of the market, and the near-perfect split suggests no one has strong information leaning either way. Worth keeping an eye on how the earlier games in the series play out - if one team is visibly dominating, the objective control patterns tend to carry over.
FAQ
Q: What does it take for this market to resolve "Yes"?
A: Both Hanwha Life Esports and HANJIN BRION must each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 3. If either team - or both - fails to secure a Baron kill, the market resolves "No". Baron Nashor first spawns at the 20-minute mark and respawns 6 minutes after each death, so there are multiple windows for teams to contest it.
Q: What happens if Game 3 is never played or the series ends before it is needed?
A: If Game 3 is not played because one team clinches the series beforehand, or if the game is canceled, forfeited, or delayed more than 7 days from its scheduled date, the market resolves to 50-50. The same applies in cases of disqualification or walkover, meaning neither outcome is favored and stakes are split evenly.
Q: How is the market resolved if Game 3 starts but ends early via surrender?
A: If the game begins but ends through a surrender before completion, resolution is based on what actually happened up to that point. If both teams had each slain Baron Nashor before the surrender, the market resolves "Yes". If the condition was not fully met by the time the game stopped, it resolves "No". A remade game, if applicable, is judged solely on the remade version.
What traders are saying
Scroll through the Polymarket comments on "Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?" and you will see a mix of hot takes and sober analysis. Here are a few of the more upvoted ones:
- "it's literally my birthday todayy 🥺🎂 anyone??"
They reflect the usual mix of conviction, scepticism and pure entertainment you get on active prediction markets.
