Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Stephen Curry for MVP? The Market Says "Absolutely Not"
Stephen Curry is one of the greatest basketball players of his generation, a four-time NBA champion, two-time MVP, and the man who permanently rewired how the sport thinks about shooting. But for the 2025-26 NBA season, Polymarket participants are not exactly lining up to back him for another MVP trophy. In fact, they are doing the opposite with almost comical conviction.
What the Market Is Saying
At a price of 0.001, Curry's implied probability of winning the 2025-26 MVP sits at roughly 0.1%. That is not a typo. The market is pricing him just barely above zero, which in prediction market terms is the equivalent of a polite "please stop asking." With $504,000 in 24-hour trading volume, this is a liquid, well-trafficked market - meaning the near-zero price reflects genuine collective judgment, not just thin activity.
The comment section makes the picture even clearer. Participants are buzzing about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who goes by the delightful nickname "The Gorgeous Salamander" in at least one corner of the internet, and appears to be the strong favourite across the broader MVP market landscape. Nikola Jokic gets mentions too, though his injury situation has cooled some enthusiasm. Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, and even a tongue-in-cheek nod to Bronny James all get more airtime than Curry does.
Why Curry Is Essentially Priced Out
The brutal truth is that Curry's Golden State Warriors have not been a dominant force recently, and MVP voters historically reward players on winning teams who carry an enormous statistical load. At 37 years old, Curry remains elite, but the narrative and the numbers are pointing elsewhere this season. The market's near-total dismissal suggests participants see no realistic path - not just a long shot, but a path so narrow it barely exists. If Curry does not even make the finalist list, the market rules mean this resolves immediately to "No," which is the outcome essentially everyone already expects.
What to Keep in Mind
Markets at 0.1% can occasionally look silly in hindsight - upsets happen, injuries reshape seasons overnight, and narratives shift. But they can also simply be correct. The Curry MVP market is a useful reminder that sometimes the crowd is not being dramatic; it is just doing arithmetic. Treat it as a barometer of where the season's MVP conversation currently stands, rather than a locked-in verdict on a campaign that has months left to run.
FAQ
Q: How does this Polymarket market resolve?
A: The market resolves "Yes" only if Stephen Curry is officially awarded the 2025-26 NBA regular season MVP. If he wins anything else - scoring title, Finals MVP, a dance-off - it still resolves "No". The primary source is official NBA announcements, though a clear consensus from credible reporting can also be used.
Q: Is there an early resolution trigger?
A: Yes. If Curry is not announced as a finalist for the 2025-26 NBA MVP award, the market resolves "No" immediately, without waiting for the final winner to be named. So the market could close well before the trophy is handed out if he misses the finalist list entirely.
Q: Where does the market currently put Curry's chances?
A: Polymarket participants are pricing in the probability through their yes/no share trading, so the current market price reflects the collective sentiment of bettors at any given moment. It is not a guarantee or a forecast - just a snapshot of what the crowd seems to believe based on available information about Curry's form, age, and the competition around him.
What traders are saying
Scroll through the Polymarket comments on "Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?" and you will see a mix of hot takes and sober analysis. Here are a few of the more upvoted ones:
- "not if it's trae young"
- "Luka is a stat sheet stuffer so this is a logical play for me. The only risk is voter fatigue. I’ve got enough skin in the game to make the…"
- "dude save your money lol"
They reflect the usual mix of conviction, scepticism and pure entertainment you get on active prediction markets.
